Development of clinical decision support for patients older than 65 years with fall-related TBI using artificial intelligence modeling

Background Older persons comprise most traumatic brain injury (TBI)-related hospitalizations and deaths and are particularly susceptible to fall-induced TBIs. The combination of increased frailty and susceptibility to clinical decline creates a significant ongoing challenge in the management of geriatric TBI. As the population ages and co-existing medical conditions complexify, so does the need to improve the quality of care for this population. Utilizing early hospital admission variables, this study will create and validate a multinomial decision tree that predicts the discharge disposition of older patients with fall-related TBI. Methods From the National Trauma Data Bank, we retrospectively analyzed 11,977 older patients with a fall-related TBI (2017–2021). Clinical variables included Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, intracranial pressure monitor use, venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis, and initial vital signs. Outcomes included hospital discharge disposition re-categorized into home, care facility, or deceased. Data were split into two sets, where 80% developed a decision tree, and 20% tested predictive performance. We employed a conditional inference tree algorithm with bootstrap (B = 100) and grid search options to grow the decision tree and measure discrimination ability using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Results Our decision tree used seven admission variables to predict the discharge disposition of older TBI patients. Significant non-modifiable variables included total GCS and injury severity scores, while VTE prophylaxis type was the most important interventional variable. Patients who did not receive VTE prophylaxis treatment had a higher probability of death. The predictive performance of the tree in terms of AUC value (95% confidence intervals) in the training cohort for death, care, and home were 0.66 (0.65–0.67), 0.75 (0.73–0.76), and 0.77 (0.76–0.79), respectively. In the test cohort, the values were 0.64 (0.62–0.67), 0.75 (0.72–0.77), and 0.77 (0.73–0.79). Conclusions We have developed and internally validated a multinomial decision tree to predict the discharge destination of older patients with TBI. This tree could serve as a decision support tool for caregivers to manage older patients better and inform decision-making. However, the tree must be externally validated using prospective data to ascertain its predictive and clinical importance.