Impacts of Neighborhood Persistent Poverty and Socioeconomic Status on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Outcomes: A Large Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) survival in the United States varies sharply by neighborhood disadvantage. Aim: To determine whether residence in persistently impoverished or low-SES census tracts is independently associated with lower all-cause and HCC-specific survival. Methods: We identified 51,323 adults with HCC using a population-based retrospective cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Research Plus Specialized Database (2006–2020). Two census tract-level socioeconomic exposures were defined: persistent poverty (≥ 20% living below the poverty line for approximately 30 years) and low SES (Yost Index first quintile). Overlap Propensity Score Weighting, combined with marginal structural models, estimated the 1-, 5-, 10-, and 15-year risks of all-cause and HCC-specific mortality. Results: The median follow-up was 16 months, 6058 (11.8%) lived in persistently impoverished tracts, and 9863 (19.5%) lived in low-SES tracts. After weighting, residents of persistently impoverished areas had a 1-year all-cause mortality risk of 46.0% vs. 40.3% (RD, 5.6%; 95% CI, 4.4% to 6.9%; RR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.17) and an HCC-specific mortality risk of 33.3% vs. 28.6% (RD, 4.8%; 95% CI, 3.2% to 6.3%; RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.22). Living in low-SES tracts raised 1-year all-cause mortality risk to 32.5% vs. 30.1% (RD, 4.8%; 95% CI, 3.6% to 6.0%; RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.15) and HCC-specific mortality risk to 32.5% vs. 30.1% (RD, 2.5%; 95% CI, 1.4% to 3.5%; RR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.12). Conclusions: Both persistent neighborhood poverty and contemporary low SES independently contribute to significant increases in mortality risk after HCC diagnosis.